{"id":102890,"date":"2025-03-26T01:40:00","date_gmt":"2025-03-26T01:40:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/?p=102890"},"modified":"2026-08-03T08:44:23","modified_gmt":"2026-08-03T08:44:23","slug":"aud-to-euro-forecast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/aud-to-euro-forecast\/","title":{"rendered":"AUD To Euro Forecast: Trouble Ahead For The Euro In 2026?"},"content":{"rendered":"<span class=\"span-reading-time rt-reading-time\" style=\"display: block;\"><span class=\"rt-label rt-prefix\">Reading Time: <\/span> <span class=\"rt-time\"> 6<\/span> <span class=\"rt-label rt-postfix\">minutes<\/span><\/span>\n<p>On the surface, the euro looks unstoppable. Against the Australian dollar, the trend has been clear &#8211; and uncomfortable for AUD holders. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As of August 2026, \u20ac100 costs roughly $164 AUD, putting the exchange rate near \u20ac0.61, up from around \u20ac0.58 earlier in the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To the casual observer, that looks like a simple, familiar story<strong>.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Aussie dollar is weakening against another major currency &#8211; again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:30px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<!-- TradingView Widget BEGIN -->\n<div class=\"tradingview-widget-container\">\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-container__widget\"><\/div>\n  \n  <script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.tradingview.com\/external-embedding\/embed-widget-advanced-chart.js\" async>\n  {\n  \"width\": \"100%\",\n  \"height\": \"400\",\n  \"symbol\": \"SAXO:AUDEUR\",\n  \"timezone\": \"Australia\/Sydney\",  \n  \"theme\": \"light\",\n  \"style\": \"3\",\n  \"locale\": \"en\",\n  \"hide_top_toolbar\": true,\n  \"range\": \"60M\",\n  \"allow_symbol_change\": false,\n  \"hide_legend\": true,\n  \"save_image\": false,\n  \"calendar\": false,\n  \"hide_volume\": true,\n  \"support_host\": \"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\"\n}\n  <\/script>\n<\/div>\n<!-- TradingView Widget END -->\n\n\n\n<p><em>Tip: Zoom out for better historical context of AUD\/EUR performance.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And with talk of a European economic recovery circulating for end of 2026, many forecasts predict the slide is far from over.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But exchange rates don&#8217;t tell the full story.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Slower, deeper forces beneath the surface are shaping AUD\/EUR&#8217;s future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>(Related: <a href=\"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/financial-independence-retire-early-fire\/\">7 Lies FIRE Movement Tells About Freedom<\/a>).<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>First, growth is compounding faster in Australia, creating a tailwind for AUD relative to EUR:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"arrow-wrapper\"><div class=\"arrow-list\"><ul><li><strong>Eurozone<\/strong>: Real GDP tracking at just ~1.0% growth, with Germany (the bloc\u2019s engine) flirting with zero growth amid industrial contraction and energy-cost pressures.<\/li><li><strong>Australia:<\/strong> Consensus forecasts nearer 2.0\u20132.5%, supported by population growth (net migration ~350,000+ annually) and commodity export expansion.<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Second, the public debt risk picture looks more ominous in Europe:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"arrow-wrapper\"><div class=\"arrow-list\"><ul><li><strong>Eurozone <\/strong>average public debt: ~90% of GDP, with Italy and Greece exceeding 140\u2013150%.<\/li><li><strong>Australia:<\/strong> Net government debt under 45% of GDP, with longer-duration bonds locked at lower refinancing rates.<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>When you examine those forces, the euro\u2019s future looks far less safe than the numbers suggest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here\u2019s what almost nobody is talking about in the AUD vs EUR outlook for 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:40px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>2025 Was Brutal For AUD vs EUR &#8211; Here\u2019s Why.<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The reversal of the so-called \u2018Trump trade\u2019 played havoc, causing the AUD\u2019s value to slip substantially.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Soft economic data out of the US &#8211; combined with President Trump\u2019s announcement in March of 2025 of tariffs to be imposed on Canada, China and Mexico &#8211; saw investor sentiment switch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>US stock markets dipped, and the euro suddenly became a lot more attractive to forex traders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"indent-wrapper\"><div class=\"indented-text\"><span><em>The EUR experienced a 5-month high against the US dollar and a 7-month high against the AUD.<\/em><\/span><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-create-block-tip-block tip-wrapper\"><div class=\"row\"><div class=\"col-md-12\"><div class=\"card-wrapper\"><div class=\"card-title\"><div class=\"icon\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"20\" height=\"20\" viewBox=\"0 0 20 20\" fill=\"none\"><path fill-rule=\"evenodd\" clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M7.5 14.33a5 5 0 1 1 5 0v4.17h-5v-4.17Zm4.25-1.3-.75.44V17H9v-3.53l-.75-.44a3.5 3.5 0 1 1 3.5 0Z\" fill=\"#656E83\"><\/path><path d=\"M9.25 1v2h1.5V1h-1.5ZM5.53 4.47l-1.5-1.5-1.06 1.06 1.5 1.5 1.06-1.06ZM15.53 5.53l1.5-1.5-1.06-1.06-1.5 1.5 1.06 1.06ZM1 10.75h2v-1.5H1v1.5ZM17 10.75h2v-1.5h-2v1.5Z\" fill=\"#656E83\"><\/path><\/svg><\/div><h3 placeholder=\"Tip Title Goes Here\"><strong>Important!<\/strong><\/h3><\/div><div class=\"card-content\"><p placeholder=\"Tip Content Goes Here\">The AUD\u2019s value also suffered due to fears over the fallout for Australia if a US-China trade war were to erupt, and further subdue Chinese growth.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Trade tensions and market volatility escalated further in April, with new, large tariffs threats, including against the European Union.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But amidst stock market tumbles and trade negotiations, the EUR continued its strength against the greenback.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(Largely due to a lack of confidence in the American currency).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In July, the Governor of the Bank of Finland, Olli Rehn, <a href=\"https:\/\/cepr.org\/voxeu\/columns\/europe-must-not-waste-its-currency-moment\">described<\/a> the rebalancing of exchange rates as a \u201chistoric opportunity to elevate the euro into a trusted global anchor.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"indent-wrapper\"><div class=\"indented-text\"><span><em><em>\u201cInvestors are re-evaluating the euro\u2019s role as a global currency amid elevated uncertainty and weaponised economic policy,\u201d he said.<\/em><\/em><\/span><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>On the other hand, traders dumped the Aussie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2018Liberation Day\u2019 tariff turmoil saw the <a href=\"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/australian-dollar-forecast\/\">AUD drop to below US$0.60<\/a>, and plummet to just \u20ac0.54. A five-year low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While the Aussie has rebounded somewhat since then, it\u2019s still down against the euro.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-create-block-tip-block tip-wrapper\"><div class=\"row\"><div class=\"col-md-12\"><div class=\"card-wrapper\"><div class=\"card-title\"><div class=\"icon\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"20\" height=\"20\" viewBox=\"0 0 20 20\" fill=\"none\"><path fill-rule=\"evenodd\" clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M7.5 14.33a5 5 0 1 1 5 0v4.17h-5v-4.17Zm4.25-1.3-.75.44V17H9v-3.53l-.75-.44a3.5 3.5 0 1 1 3.5 0Z\" fill=\"#656E83\"><\/path><path d=\"M9.25 1v2h1.5V1h-1.5ZM5.53 4.47l-1.5-1.5-1.06 1.06 1.5 1.5 1.06-1.06ZM15.53 5.53l1.5-1.5-1.06-1.06-1.5 1.5 1.06 1.06ZM1 10.75h2v-1.5H1v1.5ZM17 10.75h2v-1.5h-2v1.5Z\" fill=\"#656E83\"><\/path><\/svg><\/div><h3 placeholder=\"Tip Title Goes Here\">Did You Know?<\/h3><\/div><div class=\"card-content\"><p placeholder=\"Tip Content Goes Here\">While the European Union includes 27 countries,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/european-union.europa.eu\/institutions-law-budget\/euro\/countries-using-euro_en\">the euro (\u20ac) is the single currency across 20 member countries<\/a>. The collective of countries where the euro is used is known as the Eurozone.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:40px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>What Experts Are Warning About AUD vs EUR.<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westpaciq.com.au\/economics\">AUD to euro\u00a0forecast from Westpac<\/a>\u00a0sees the currency pair softening a bit by 2027.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a id=\"_msocom_1\"><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:12px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table is-style-stripes\"><table><thead><tr><th><strong>AUD\/EUR<\/strong><\/th><th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Sep 2026<\/th><th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Dec 2026<\/th><th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Mar 2027<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0.60<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0.59<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0.59<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Above: By start of 2027, Westpac thinks AUD\/EUR will soften to \u20ac0.59.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>An outlook from OFX published on 8th July <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ofx.com\/en-au\/blog\/currency-outlook\/#AUD%20Australian%20dollar\">predicted<\/a> the AUD\/EUR pair would trade within a range of \u20ac0.6036 &#8211; 0.6082 for the next few months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Its analysts said markets could favour the euro in the coming months if signs of improvement in the German manufacturing sector continue into 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-create-block-tip-block tip-wrapper\"><div class=\"row\"><div class=\"col-md-12\"><div class=\"card-wrapper\"><div class=\"card-title\"><div class=\"icon\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"20\" height=\"20\" viewBox=\"0 0 20 20\" fill=\"none\"><path fill-rule=\"evenodd\" clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M7.5 14.33a5 5 0 1 1 5 0v4.17h-5v-4.17Zm4.25-1.3-.75.44V17H9v-3.53l-.75-.44a3.5 3.5 0 1 1 3.5 0Z\" fill=\"#656E83\"><\/path><path d=\"M9.25 1v2h1.5V1h-1.5ZM5.53 4.47l-1.5-1.5-1.06 1.06 1.5 1.5 1.06-1.06ZM15.53 5.53l1.5-1.5-1.06-1.06-1.5 1.5 1.06 1.06ZM1 10.75h2v-1.5H1v1.5ZM17 10.75h2v-1.5h-2v1.5Z\" fill=\"#656E83\"><\/path><\/svg><\/div><h3 placeholder=\"Tip Title Goes Here\"><strong>Important!<\/strong><\/h3><\/div><div class=\"card-content\"><p placeholder=\"Tip Content Goes Here\">The Eurozone PMI data for November showed that business activity expanded again, after solid growth in October. Germany\u2019s PMI slowed down slightly, falling from 53.9 to 52.1.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>A continuation of the US Federal Reserve\u2019s wait-and-see approach in 2026 is also expected to weaken the US dollar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Whereas the European Central Bank (ECB) looks <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/ecb-set-hold-rates-through-2026-steady-economic-outlook-2025-11-19\/\">set to hold<\/a> or potentially start lifting its policy rates in 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In addition to a more dovish Fed, the US economy doesn\u2019t stack up as well against Europe\u2019s fiscal agenda in coming years, according to Mahjabeen Zaman, ANZ\u2019s head of FX research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"indent-wrapper\"><div class=\"indented-text\"><span><em>\u201cYes, it will take time &#8211; you\u2019re not going to see results overnight. But we are quite optimistic the euro, and for example that\u2019s really been the anti-dollar proxy for most part this year,\u201d she said.<\/em><\/span><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Of course, the rate differential with the US should also help boost the Aussie against the greenback &#8211; but it\u2019s less likely to benefit the AUD against the EUR.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-create-block-tip-block tip-wrapper\"><div class=\"row\"><div class=\"col-md-12\"><div class=\"card-wrapper\"><div class=\"card-title\"><div class=\"icon\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"20\" height=\"20\" viewBox=\"0 0 20 20\" fill=\"none\"><path fill-rule=\"evenodd\" clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M7.5 14.33a5 5 0 1 1 5 0v4.17h-5v-4.17Zm4.25-1.3-.75.44V17H9v-3.53l-.75-.44a3.5 3.5 0 1 1 3.5 0Z\" fill=\"#656E83\"><\/path><path d=\"M9.25 1v2h1.5V1h-1.5ZM5.53 4.47l-1.5-1.5-1.06 1.06 1.5 1.5 1.06-1.06ZM15.53 5.53l1.5-1.5-1.06-1.06-1.5 1.5 1.06 1.06ZM1 10.75h2v-1.5H1v1.5ZM17 10.75h2v-1.5h-2v1.5Z\" fill=\"#656E83\"><\/path><\/svg><\/div><h3 placeholder=\"Tip Title Goes Here\">Important!<\/h3><\/div><div class=\"card-content\"><p placeholder=\"Tip Content Goes Here\">The US Federal Reserve has made two 25bp worth of cuts in the second half of 2025, but a cooling jobs market combined with rising inflation has the Fed divided over its next move.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>ING FX analysts are bullish on the EUR\/USD rising to \u20ac1.20 by end-2026 , but it depends heavily on the Fed\u2019s next moves:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"indent-wrapper\"><div class=\"indented-text\"><span><em><em>\u201cChanges on the Fed board early next year and potential political pressure on the central bank ahead of the November midterms warn that US dollar real rates drift towards neutral and weigh on the dollar.\u201d \u2014 ING<\/em><\/em><\/span><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The strength of the euro area economy will also be a deciding factor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"arrow-wrapper\"><div class=\"arrow-list\"><ul><li><strong>Its economic<\/strong>\u00a0outlook\u00a0is strengthening, but still weak, with growth projected to be around 1.2% throughout 2026.<\/li><li><strong>Its debt-to-GDP ratio<\/strong> is increasing, from 88% in 2024 to 91% in 2027, due to deficits and servicing costs.<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-create-block-tip-block tip-wrapper\"><div class=\"row\"><div class=\"col-md-12\"><div class=\"card-wrapper\"><div class=\"card-title\"><div class=\"icon\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"20\" height=\"20\" viewBox=\"0 0 20 20\" fill=\"none\"><path fill-rule=\"evenodd\" clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M7.5 14.33a5 5 0 1 1 5 0v4.17h-5v-4.17Zm4.25-1.3-.75.44V17H9v-3.53l-.75-.44a3.5 3.5 0 1 1 3.5 0Z\" fill=\"#656E83\"><\/path><path d=\"M9.25 1v2h1.5V1h-1.5ZM5.53 4.47l-1.5-1.5-1.06 1.06 1.5 1.5 1.06-1.06ZM15.53 5.53l1.5-1.5-1.06-1.06-1.5 1.5 1.06 1.06ZM1 10.75h2v-1.5H1v1.5ZM17 10.75h2v-1.5h-2v1.5Z\" fill=\"#656E83\"><\/path><\/svg><\/div><h3 placeholder=\"Tip Title Goes Here\">Important!<\/h3><\/div><div class=\"card-content\"><p placeholder=\"Tip Content Goes Here\">The European Union has the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.weforum.org\/agenda\/2023\/02\/eu-countries-largest-economies-energy-gdp\/\">third-largest economy<\/a>\u00a0in the world behind the US and China, dominated by the GDP output of Germany, France and Italy &#8211; which all use the euro. Growth is forecast to\u00a0rebound\u00a0in Germany in 2026 to 1.2% thanks to a ramp-up in public spending.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:40px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>What Is The Impact Of Monetary Policy On The AUD\/EUR?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Although inflation in the eurozone isn\u2019t quite within target &#8211; at 2.1% compared to its 2% goal &#8211; 93% of economists polled by Reuters in November 2025 think the ECB will keep rates on hold throughout 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"indent-wrapper\"><div class=\"indented-text\"><span><em><em>That would maintain the ECB policy rate at 2%, compared to the US rate sitting at 3.75% \u2013 4.00%.<\/em><\/em><\/span><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>But more policy easing is likely in the US.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even with the differential in the US\u2019 favour, its easing agenda and shaky economic conditions, compared to a stabilising euro area, could lend weight to appreciation of the euro.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But demand for the AUD against the euro could improve given the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) looks to be shifting back into hawkish territory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"indent-wrapper\"><div class=\"indented-text\"><span><em><em>The most recent\u00a0<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.abs.gov.au\/statistics\/economy\/price-indexes-and-inflation\/consumer-price-index-australia\/latest-release\"><em>CPI print<\/em><\/a><em>\u00a0dashed hopes of further easing, with core inflation stubbornly staying at 3.3.<\/em><\/em><\/span><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>A widening of the interest rate differential between Australia and the eurozone could bolster the AUD\/EUR cross pair.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:40px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Will The AUD Get Stronger In Late 2026?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The AUD\/EUR pair\u2019s exchange rate is heavily influenced by how both currencies perform relative to the US dollar &#8211; a safe haven currency for investors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"indent-wrapper\"><div class=\"indented-text\"><span><em>Forecasts are for the Australian dollar to\u00a0<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/australian-dollar-forecast\/\"><em>strengthen against the greenback throughout 2026<\/em><\/a>.<\/span><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>But a major headwind for the Australian dollar in 2026 is slowing demand for our commodities, in large part due to China\u2019s property sector downturn and slump in consumer demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-create-block-tip-block tip-wrapper\"><div class=\"row\"><div class=\"col-md-12\"><div class=\"card-wrapper\"><div class=\"card-title\"><div class=\"icon\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"20\" height=\"20\" viewBox=\"0 0 20 20\" fill=\"none\"><path fill-rule=\"evenodd\" clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M7.5 14.33a5 5 0 1 1 5 0v4.17h-5v-4.17Zm4.25-1.3-.75.44V17H9v-3.53l-.75-.44a3.5 3.5 0 1 1 3.5 0Z\" fill=\"#656E83\"><\/path><path d=\"M9.25 1v2h1.5V1h-1.5ZM5.53 4.47l-1.5-1.5-1.06 1.06 1.5 1.5 1.06-1.06ZM15.53 5.53l1.5-1.5-1.06-1.06-1.5 1.5 1.06 1.06ZM1 10.75h2v-1.5H1v1.5ZM17 10.75h2v-1.5h-2v1.5Z\" fill=\"#656E83\"><\/path><\/svg><\/div><h3 placeholder=\"Tip Title Goes Here\">Important!<\/h3><\/div><div class=\"card-content\"><p placeholder=\"Tip Content Goes Here\">Westpac\u2019s\u00a0Luci Ellis said in October that recent Chinese Government stimulus wouldn\u2019t deliver lasting upside for Australian iron ore exports, largely because Chinese steel production has peaked.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Another risk comes from US-China trade relations. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tensions ratcheted up again as President Trump met with President Xi in October, with Xi determined to push back on tariffs against China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, a deal was reached.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And Westpac\u2019s Elliot Clarke said the Chinese economy was \u201cwell insulated from the US threats\u201d. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He argues the key downside risk is household demand, which China\u2019s latest 5-Year plan does aim to boost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"indent-wrapper\"><div class=\"indented-text\"><span><em><em>\u201cOnly when confidence is restored will individuals and businesses be willing to reduce savings and take on leverage.\u201d \u2014 Elliot Clarke, Westpac Head of International Economics.<\/em><\/em><\/span><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-create-block-tip-block tip-wrapper\"><div class=\"row\"><div class=\"col-md-12\"><div class=\"card-wrapper\"><div class=\"card-title\"><div class=\"icon\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"20\" height=\"20\" viewBox=\"0 0 20 20\" fill=\"none\"><path fill-rule=\"evenodd\" clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M7.5 14.33a5 5 0 1 1 5 0v4.17h-5v-4.17Zm4.25-1.3-.75.44V17H9v-3.53l-.75-.44a3.5 3.5 0 1 1 3.5 0Z\" fill=\"#656E83\"><\/path><path d=\"M9.25 1v2h1.5V1h-1.5ZM5.53 4.47l-1.5-1.5-1.06 1.06 1.5 1.5 1.06-1.06ZM15.53 5.53l1.5-1.5-1.06-1.06-1.5 1.5 1.06 1.06ZM1 10.75h2v-1.5H1v1.5ZM17 10.75h2v-1.5h-2v1.5Z\" fill=\"#656E83\"><\/path><\/svg><\/div><h3 placeholder=\"Tip Title Goes Here\">Important!<\/h3><\/div><div class=\"card-content\"><p placeholder=\"Tip Content Goes Here\">UBS investment bank <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ubs.com\/global\/en\/investment-bank\/insights-and-data\/articles\/china-outlook.html\">forecasts<\/a>\u00a0China\u2019s GDP growth to decline to 4.5% in 2026 but suggested: \u201cUncertainties related to US trade &amp; tech policies\u00a0and China\u2019s policy response may lead to risks to our baseline forecast.\u00a0\u201d<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:40px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Historical Performance Of The AUD\/EUR.<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The euro took a beating in 2022, depreciating against the US dollar in one of its worst-performing years. At one point, it&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/plus\/could-the-euro-collapse\">lost 16% of its value against the greenback<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In July 2022, the euro lost parity with the US dollar for the first time in 20 years \u2014 it\u2019s historically been worth more than the dollar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>(Related:&nbsp;<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/aud-to-gpb-forecast\/\"><strong>AUD to GBP: Expert Forecast<\/strong><\/a><strong>).<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine naturally affected economies across the Eurozone due to supply chain disruptions, increased energy costs and increased fear and doubt among consumers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Not coincidentally, it was the euro area\u2019s worst year of inflation &#8211; reaching 10.6% in October 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"indent-wrapper\"><div class=\"indented-text\"><span><em>The Aussie appreciated slightly against the euro in 2022, with an average conversion rate of around 65c for the year.<\/em><\/span><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>But the AUD to euro pairing declined again, then moved into a period of stability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"arrow-wrapper\"><div class=\"arrow-list\"><ul><li><strong>The<\/strong> AUD to Euro exchange rate averaged \u20ac0.613 in 2023.<\/li><li><strong>It<\/strong> was around \u20ac0.609 in 2024, making one euro worth AU$1.64.<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:40px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Final Verdict On AUD To Euro Outlook.<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Forecasts are for the AUD\/EUR to lift slightly to sit in the range of \u20ac0.59- \u20ac0.61 in 2026 &#8211; meaning one euro is worth around $1.64 Australian dollars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A widening interest rate differential between Australian and European central banks could increase demand for the Aussie relative to the euro, but the impact may be minimal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The AUD\/EUR exchange rate also rests largely on the policies, growth prospects and political tensions that emerge out of the US, Europe and China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:30px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Jody<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:30px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p><span class=\"span-reading-time rt-reading-time\" style=\"display: block;\"><span class=\"rt-label rt-prefix\">Reading Time: <\/span> <span class=\"rt-time\"> 6<\/span> <span class=\"rt-label rt-postfix\">minutes<\/span><\/span>On the surface, the euro looks unstoppable. Against the Australian dollar, the trend has been clear &#8211; and uncomfortable for<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":120630,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[324,267],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-102890","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economic-outlook","category-money"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>AUD To Euro Forecast: Trouble Ahead For The Euro In 2026?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Is a euro crash coming in 2026? 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During my 20+ year career, I've reported for Australian business publications and bodies, including Forbes, The Chainsaw and NSW Business Chamber.","sameAs":["https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/contentquill\/"],"url":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/author\/jody\/"}]}},"modified_by":"Steven McConnell","uagb_featured_image_src":{"full":["https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/aud-to-euro-forecast.jpg",1490,838,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/aud-to-euro-forecast-150x150.jpg",150,150,true],"medium":["https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/aud-to-euro-forecast-300x169.jpg",300,169,true],"medium_large":["https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/aud-to-euro-forecast-768x432.jpg",768,432,true],"large":["https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/aud-to-euro-forecast-1024x576.jpg",1024,576,true],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/aud-to-euro-forecast.jpg",1490,838,false],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/aud-to-euro-forecast.jpg",1490,838,false],"alm-thumbnail":["https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/aud-to-euro-forecast-150x150.jpg",150,150,true]},"uagb_author_info":{"display_name":"Jody McDonald","author_link":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/author\/jody\/"},"uagb_comment_info":1,"uagb_excerpt":"Reading Time: 6 minutesOn the surface, the euro looks unstoppable. Against the Australian dollar, the trend has been clear &#8211; and uncomfortable for","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102890","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/14"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=102890"}],"version-history":[{"count":67,"href":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102890\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":126297,"href":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102890\/revisions\/126297"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/120630"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=102890"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=102890"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=102890"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}