{"id":104820,"date":"2024-06-27T22:44:37","date_gmt":"2024-06-27T22:44:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/?p=104820"},"modified":"2026-07-21T06:01:48","modified_gmt":"2026-07-21T06:01:48","slug":"aud-to-gpb-forecast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/aud-to-gpb-forecast\/","title":{"rendered":"AUD To GBP Forecast: Will The Pound Crash In 2026?"},"content":{"rendered":"<span class=\"span-reading-time rt-reading-time\" style=\"display: block;\"><span class=\"rt-label rt-prefix\">Reading Time: <\/span> <span class=\"rt-time\"> 6<\/span> <span class=\"rt-label rt-postfix\">minutes<\/span><\/span>\n<p>On the surface, the GBP looks bulletproof. Against its major peers, sterling hasn\u2019t exactly been limping. As of December 2025, one pound buys roughly:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"arrow-wrapper\"><div class=\"arrow-list\"><ul><li><strong>$2.02 AUD<\/strong><\/li><li><strong>$1.32 USD<\/strong><\/li><li><strong>\u20ac1.16 EUR<\/strong><\/li><li><strong>1.06 CHF<\/strong><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>To many investors, those numbers scream strength. Stability. A currency that has survived wars, financial crises, Brexit and political division.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So what\u2019s the problem?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:30px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<!-- TradingView Widget BEGIN -->\n<div class=\"tradingview-widget-container\">\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-container__widget\"><\/div>\n  \n  <script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.tradingview.com\/external-embedding\/embed-widget-advanced-chart.js\" async>\n  {\n  \"width\": \"100%\",\n  \"height\": \"400\",\n  \"symbol\": \"SAXO:AUDGBP\",\n  \"timezone\": \"Australia\/Sydney\",  \n  \"theme\": \"light\",\n  \"style\": \"3\",\n  \"locale\": \"en\",\n  \"hide_top_toolbar\": true,\n  \"range\": \"60M\",\n  \"allow_symbol_change\": false,\n  \"hide_legend\": true,\n  \"save_image\": false,\n  \"calendar\": false,\n  \"hide_volume\": true,\n  \"support_host\": \"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\"\n}\n  <\/script>\n<\/div>\n<!-- TradingView Widget END -->\n\n\n\n<p><em>Tip: Zoom out for a better historical context of AUD\/GBP performance.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Because scratch just beneath the surface &#8211; and the GBP&#8217;s resilience begins to look less like strength.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And more like complacency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While AUD\/GBP forecasts fixate on today\u2019s exchange rates, the real story is unfolding where few analysts venture:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"arrow-wrapper\"><div class=\"arrow-list\"><ul><li><strong>UK:<\/strong> GDP is barely growing at <strong>~0.5\u20131.0%<\/strong> annually, weighed down by productivity stagnation and weak consumer spending.<\/li><li><strong>Australia:<\/strong> Forecast growth closer to <strong>2.0\u20132.5%<\/strong>, driven by population expansion (net migration ><strong>350,000\/year<\/strong>) and resource exports.<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Debt dynamics also matter &#8211; because FX markets hate government balance-sheet stress:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"arrow-wrapper\"><div class=\"arrow-list\"><ul><li><strong>UK public debt:<\/strong> Running at <strong>~100% of GDP<\/strong> \u2014 with debt servicing costs exploding as maturing bonds roll onto higher interest rates.<\/li><li><strong>Australia:<\/strong> Public debt under <strong>45% of GDP<\/strong>, with longer average maturities locking in cheaper borrowing.<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>This nuance suggests the forecast for GBP in 2026 looks far less comfortable than the spot price suggests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, the AUD &#8211; usually dismissed as the &#8220;risk-on&#8221;, commodity-soaked underdog &#8211; may not be as weak as the narrative implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yes, the AUD is notoriously sensitive to China\u2019s growth cycles and commodity prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-create-block-tip-block tip-wrapper\"><div class=\"row\"><div class=\"col-md-12\"><div class=\"card-wrapper\"><div class=\"card-title\"><div class=\"icon\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"20\" height=\"20\" viewBox=\"0 0 20 20\" fill=\"none\"><path fill-rule=\"evenodd\" clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M7.5 14.33a5 5 0 1 1 5 0v4.17h-5v-4.17Zm4.25-1.3-.75.44V17H9v-3.53l-.75-.44a3.5 3.5 0 1 1 3.5 0Z\" fill=\"#656E83\"><\/path><path d=\"M9.25 1v2h1.5V1h-1.5ZM5.53 4.47l-1.5-1.5-1.06 1.06 1.5 1.5 1.06-1.06ZM15.53 5.53l1.5-1.5-1.06-1.06-1.5 1.5 1.06 1.06ZM1 10.75h2v-1.5H1v1.5ZM17 10.75h2v-1.5h-2v1.5Z\" fill=\"#656E83\"><\/path><\/svg><\/div><h3 placeholder=\"Tip Title Goes Here\">Important!<\/h3><\/div><div class=\"card-content\"><p placeholder=\"Tip Content Goes Here\">When markets turn nervous, the Aussie dollar historically wears the pain first.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>But 2026 could break that familiar script.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:40px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Why Experts Are Nervous About GBP In 2026.<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Are you an Australian looking to exchange your AUD for GBP?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I have great news. Forecasts predict the Aussie dollar will appreciate slightly throughout 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"indent-wrapper\"><div class=\"indented-text\"><span>Over the last five years, AU$1.0 has bought \u00a30.52 on average. <\/span><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>One Australian dollar is currently being exchanged for \u00a30.49, but forecasts from Westpac and&nbsp;NAB&nbsp;show it staying within the \u00a30.50-\u00a30.52 range over the next 12 months<a>.<\/a><a id=\"_msocom_1\"><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:15px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table is-style-stripes\"><table><thead><tr><th class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">AUD\/GBP<\/th><th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Mar 26<\/th><th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Jun 26<\/th><th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Sept 26<\/th><th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Dec 26<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\"><strong>NAB Forecast<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0.51<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0.52<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0.52<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0.52<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\"><strong>Westpac Forecast<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0.50<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0.51<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0.51<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0.52<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Above: By December 2026, NAB believes AUD\/GBP will be \u00a30.52.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The GBP\/AUD currency pair is currently 2.02 (as of 1 December 2025), down -3.4% over the previous 6 months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Data-dependent fluctuations have characterised the cross-pair of late.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>(Related: <a href=\"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/financial-independence-retire-early-fire\/\">7 Lies FIRE Movement Tells About Financial Freedom<\/a>).<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In early November, the AUD briefly gained some ground against both the sterling and the US dollar &#8211; thanks to a more hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which held rates at 3.60%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The sterling broadly declined after <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ons.gov.uk\/economy\/grossdomesticproductgdp\/bulletins\/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk\/julytoseptember2025\">GDP data<\/a> released on 13 November 2025, showed the UK economy had grown just 0.1% in the third quarter (compared to an expected 0.2%, and following 0.3% growth in Q2) .<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-create-block-tip-block tip-wrapper\"><div class=\"row\"><div class=\"col-md-12\"><div class=\"card-wrapper\"><div class=\"card-title\"><div class=\"icon\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"20\" height=\"20\" viewBox=\"0 0 20 20\" fill=\"none\"><path fill-rule=\"evenodd\" clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M7.5 14.33a5 5 0 1 1 5 0v4.17h-5v-4.17Zm4.25-1.3-.75.44V17H9v-3.53l-.75-.44a3.5 3.5 0 1 1 3.5 0Z\" fill=\"#656E83\"><\/path><path d=\"M9.25 1v2h1.5V1h-1.5ZM5.53 4.47l-1.5-1.5-1.06 1.06 1.5 1.5 1.06-1.06ZM15.53 5.53l1.5-1.5-1.06-1.06-1.5 1.5 1.06 1.06ZM1 10.75h2v-1.5H1v1.5ZM17 10.75h2v-1.5h-2v1.5Z\" fill=\"#656E83\"><\/path><\/svg><\/div><h3 placeholder=\"Tip Title Goes Here\">Did You know?<\/h3><\/div><div class=\"card-content\"><p placeholder=\"Tip Content Goes Here\">Of the major currencies, GBP was weakest against the AUD, hitting an almost <a href=\"https:\/\/www.exchangerates.org.uk\/news\/44544\/2025-11-14-pound-to-australian-dollar-rate-news-forecast-aud-jumps-jobs-beat-gbp-stumbles.html\">nine-month low<\/a>. That\u2019s because the Aussie simultaneously got a boost.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>ABS unemployment data, also released on 13 November, revealed Australia\u2019s jobless rate had fallen to 4.3% from 4.5% the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-create-block-tip-block tip-wrapper\"><div class=\"row\"><div class=\"col-md-12\"><div class=\"card-wrapper\"><div class=\"card-title\"><div class=\"icon\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"20\" height=\"20\" viewBox=\"0 0 20 20\" fill=\"none\"><path fill-rule=\"evenodd\" clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M7.5 14.33a5 5 0 1 1 5 0v4.17h-5v-4.17Zm4.25-1.3-.75.44V17H9v-3.53l-.75-.44a3.5 3.5 0 1 1 3.5 0Z\" fill=\"#656E83\"><\/path><path d=\"M9.25 1v2h1.5V1h-1.5ZM5.53 4.47l-1.5-1.5-1.06 1.06 1.5 1.5 1.06-1.06ZM15.53 5.53l1.5-1.5-1.06-1.06-1.5 1.5 1.06 1.06ZM1 10.75h2v-1.5H1v1.5ZM17 10.75h2v-1.5h-2v1.5Z\" fill=\"#656E83\"><\/path><\/svg><\/div><h3 placeholder=\"Tip Title Goes Here\">Expert Tip.<\/h3><\/div><div class=\"card-content\"><p placeholder=\"Tip Content Goes Here\">The GBP\/AUD currency pair is a commonly-traded cross pair (aka minor currency pair). Traders look to for making gains when major pairs like the EUR\/USD or GBP\/USD don\u2019t offer opportunities.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>But the sterling has been showing some signs of strength since then.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Markets didn\u2019t go too crazy in reaction to the UK\u2019s budget &#8211; handed down on 26 November. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But the pound did see an initial spike in value, giving the GBP\/AUD exchange rate a lift.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Currency analyst Lee Hardman, from MUGF\u2019s Global Currency Research, said on 27 November that the lack of \u201cnegative policy surprises\u201d in the budget wouldn\u2019t be enough to sustain upwards momentum for the pound.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"indent-wrapper\"><div class=\"indented-text\"><span><em><em>\u201cWe expect the market focus to switch back soon to the prospect of the BoE cutting rates again in December weighing on pound performance heading into year end,\u201d he said.<\/em><\/em><\/span><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>However, Scotiabank\u2019s FX forecast anticipates less easing from the Bank of England compared to the US Federal Reserve, justifying a bullish outlook for GBP moving forward.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At least relative to the greenback.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-create-block-tip-block tip-wrapper\"><div class=\"row\"><div class=\"col-md-12\"><div class=\"card-wrapper\"><div class=\"card-title\"><div class=\"icon\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"20\" height=\"20\" viewBox=\"0 0 20 20\" fill=\"none\"><path fill-rule=\"evenodd\" clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M7.5 14.33a5 5 0 1 1 5 0v4.17h-5v-4.17Zm4.25-1.3-.75.44V17H9v-3.53l-.75-.44a3.5 3.5 0 1 1 3.5 0Z\" fill=\"#656E83\"><\/path><path d=\"M9.25 1v2h1.5V1h-1.5ZM5.53 4.47l-1.5-1.5-1.06 1.06 1.5 1.5 1.06-1.06ZM15.53 5.53l1.5-1.5-1.06-1.06-1.5 1.5 1.06 1.06ZM1 10.75h2v-1.5H1v1.5ZM17 10.75h2v-1.5h-2v1.5Z\" fill=\"#656E83\"><\/path><\/svg><\/div><h3 placeholder=\"Tip Title Goes Here\"><strong>Important!<\/strong><\/h3><\/div><div class=\"card-content\"><p placeholder=\"Tip Content Goes Here\">If the pound\u2019s strength is channelled via the GBP\/USD pair, what does that mean for its value compared to the AUD?<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Of course, Australia\u2019s currency should also do well against the US dollar, given the emerging rate differential.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But the AUD\u2019s relative strength to the pound will likely hinge on factors such as:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"arrow-wrapper\"><div class=\"arrow-list\"><ul><li><strong>How<\/strong> well China\u2019s policies and stimulus measures work to improve its flagging economy.<\/li><li><strong>How<\/strong> well our domestic economy holds up, and whether the RBA chooses to tighten or loosen monetary policy.<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>ING\u2019s FX outlook for 2026 posits that with Fed cuts on the agenda and a less dominant USD, G10 countries\u2019 activity data will play a greater role in shaping exchange rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong>(Related:&nbsp;<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/what-happens-in-a-recession\/\"><strong>What Happens In A Recession?<\/strong><\/a><strong>)<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Its analysts think the pound sterling will remain vulnerable moving forward, while the Australian dollar could be a \u2018positive standout\u2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"indent-wrapper\"><div class=\"indented-text\"><span><em>&#8220;The pound offers attractive carry, but this is unlikely to fully offset a softer growth outlook and the potential re-emergence of fiscal concerns.\u201d &#8211; ING FX Outlook 2026<\/em><\/span><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:40px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Why Is The GBP In Decline?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>As one of the strongest currencies in the world, the British pound (GBP) is a free-floating currency that is among the top four most-traded currencies on the forex market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Key reasons for the pound\u2019s strength include:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"arrow-wrapper\"><div class=\"arrow-list\"><ul><li><strong>Britain\u2019s historical dominance<\/strong> and the pound\u2019s longevity, being one of the oldest fiat currencies still in circulation today.<\/li><li><strong>The UK being attractive to investors<\/strong> as one of the world\u2019s largest economies by gross domestic product (GDP), rated sixth behind the US, China, Germany, Japan and India.<\/li><li><strong>The pound sterling being a widely held reserve currency<\/strong>, alongside the US dollar, euro, and the Japanese yen, hoarded by central banks and treasuries.<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>While the pound has been generally stronger than the US dollar and the AUD in recent decades, a few major events have knocked the GBP\u2019s value against leading currencies, including:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"arrow-wrapper\"><div class=\"arrow-list\"><ul><li><strong>The Global Financial Crisis<\/strong> of 2007-09, which saw the pound depreciate by 30%, to see it trading at around 1.40 US dollars.<\/li><li><strong>The UK\u2019s vote to exit the European Union<\/strong> in 2016 that resulted in the pound falling to a 30-year low. It has yet to recover to its pre-Brexit strength.<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>In recent years, the pound has also lost some ground to a US dollar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Greenback has been remarkably resilient in the face of subdued global growth, widespread monetary policy tightening and geopolitical upheaval.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"indent-wrapper\"><div class=\"indented-text\"><span><em>The US dollar\u2019s \u2018safe haven\u2019 status and the fact that the UK slipped into a technical recession at the end of 2023 have both contributed.<\/em><\/span><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>In March 2024, Bloomberg reported that the UK economy seemed to be holding up better than expected with its high interest rate, which meant the British&nbsp;pound&nbsp;was&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2024-03-10\/pound-is-beating-92-of-global-currencies-on-economic-rebound\">beating more than 90% of the world\u2019s currencies<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The pound was one of the best performers &#8211; of G10 currencies &#8211;&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/currencies\/steady-sterling-track-best-g10-performance-against-dollar-2024-2024-12-31\/\">against the US dollar<\/a>&nbsp;throughout 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>US \u2018exceptionalism\u2019 has been tested in 2025, with President Trump\u2019s policies, trade wars, geopolitical tensions, soft economic data, and attacks on US institutions all reflected in the USD\u2019s weaker performance of late.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The euro saw greater gains arising from a weaker USD than the pound. But the GBP\/USD was up over 5.5% for the year (as of 1 December). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the end of December 2024 a pound was worth US$1.25. The GBP\/USD exchange rate fell to $1.21 in early January 2025 and was $1.32 at the time of writing in December 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>(Related: <a href=\"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/best-crypto-exchange-australia\/\">Best Cryptocurrency Exchanges In Australia<\/a>).<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:40px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Why Interest Rates Could Flip AUD vs GBP<\/strong>.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>How a stronger pound against the greenback affects cross rates like the GBP\/AUD in 2026 is yet to be seen. <br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But on the AUD side, we could see impacts from:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"arrow-wrapper\"><div class=\"arrow-list\"><ul><li><strong>Cash rate differentials<\/strong>\u00a0\u2014 with more support for the Aussie against the pound depending on CPI data and whether the RBA considers raising interest rates.<\/li><li><strong>China\u2019s continuing slowdown, <\/strong>which could erode the Aussie if upcoming economic data coming out of our largest trading partner worsens.\u00a0\u00a0<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>On the flip side, challenges facing the UK in coming months that could weaken the pound include:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"arrow-wrapper\"><div class=\"arrow-list\"><ul><li><strong>BoE rate cuts<\/strong>\u00a0expected &#8211; with indicators of short-term inflation expectations are moderating.<\/li><li><strong>Stagnant GDP growth<\/strong>\u00a0with estimated 0.1% growth in Q3 2025, compared to 0.3% in Q2 and 0.7% in Q1.<\/li><li><strong>Rising unemployment<\/strong>, with the jobless rate at 5% and vacancies for permanent jobs declining rapidly.<\/li><li><strong>Robust wage growth<\/strong> that could put upside pressure on inflation driven by a rise in the minimum wage.<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-create-block-tip-block tip-wrapper\"><div class=\"row\"><div class=\"col-md-12\"><div class=\"card-wrapper\"><div class=\"card-title\"><div class=\"icon\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"20\" height=\"20\" viewBox=\"0 0 20 20\" fill=\"none\"><path fill-rule=\"evenodd\" clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M7.5 14.33a5 5 0 1 1 5 0v4.17h-5v-4.17Zm4.25-1.3-.75.44V17H9v-3.53l-.75-.44a3.5 3.5 0 1 1 3.5 0Z\" fill=\"#656E83\"><\/path><path d=\"M9.25 1v2h1.5V1h-1.5ZM5.53 4.47l-1.5-1.5-1.06 1.06 1.5 1.5 1.06-1.06ZM15.53 5.53l1.5-1.5-1.06-1.06-1.5 1.5 1.06 1.06ZM1 10.75h2v-1.5H1v1.5ZM17 10.75h2v-1.5h-2v1.5Z\" fill=\"#656E83\"><\/path><\/svg><\/div><h3 placeholder=\"Tip Title Goes Here\">Did You Know?<\/h3><\/div><div class=\"card-content\"><p placeholder=\"Tip Content Goes Here\"><em>The <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/bank-england-cut-interest-rates-december-again-q1-2026-2025-11-18\/\"><em>majority<\/em><\/a><em> of economists now believe the Bank of England (BoE) will cut rates to 3.75% when they next meet in December.<\/em><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The UK\u2019s most recent&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ons.gov.uk\/economy\/inflationandpriceindices\/bulletins\/consumerpriceinflation\/december2024\">CPI data<\/a>&nbsp;(released 19 November) shows inflation rose more slowly in the 12 months to October 2025. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But at 3.6%, it\u2019s still well above the BoE 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The US Federal Reserve is also a shoo-in to continue easing in December 2025, bringing its interest rate range to 3.50%-3.75%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, in Australia, the chances of additional <a href=\"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/interest-rate-forecast-australia\/\">interest rate cuts by the RBA have diminished<\/a>. Rate hikes could become a reality, which tends to lift the AUD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Prices are rising again, as demonstrated by 3.8% headline inflation and a 3.3% trimmed mean in the October CPI, issued on 26 November by the ABS.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>ANZ senior economist Adelaide Timbrell said in November that the October CPI print showed a pattern of accelerating core inflation in recent months. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If current data is sustained, it adds to the risk the RBA won\u2019t cut further, according to Timbrell.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"indent-wrapper\"><div class=\"indented-text\"><span><em><em>\u201cWe\u2019re seeing not only accelerating inflation based on this data but also inflation that is on the edge of just outside of the Reserve Bank\u2019s target band,\u201d she said.<\/em><\/em><\/span><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:40px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Final Verdict on AUD vs GBP in 2026.<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Expected deeper monetary easing in the US, compared to the UK &#8211; and a return to hawkish sentiment in Australia &#8211; could see the Aussie and the sterling strengthen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The pound\u2019s strength may outweigh any investor interest in Australia\u2019s on-risk currency if global conditions deteriorate any further.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:30px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Jody<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:30px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p><span class=\"span-reading-time rt-reading-time\" style=\"display: block;\"><span class=\"rt-label rt-prefix\">Reading Time: <\/span> <span class=\"rt-time\"> 6<\/span> <span class=\"rt-label rt-postfix\">minutes<\/span><\/span>On the surface, the GBP looks bulletproof. Against its major peers, sterling hasn\u2019t exactly been limping. As of December 2025,<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":120622,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[324,267],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-104820","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economic-outlook","category-money"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>AUD To GBP Forecast: Will The Pound Gain Ground?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"What is the AUD to GBP forecast for the rest of 2024? 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We examine factors that impact the British Pound's value and offer expert predictions.","og_url":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/aud-to-gpb-forecast\/","og_site_name":"Arielle Executive","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ArielleExecutive\/","article_published_time":"2024-06-27T22:44:37+00:00","article_modified_time":"2026-07-21T06:01:48+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1490,"height":838,"url":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/aud-gbp-forecast.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Jody McDonald","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@arielleexec","twitter_site":"@arielleexec","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Jody McDonald","Est. reading time":"8 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/aud-to-gpb-forecast\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/aud-to-gpb-forecast\/"},"author":{"name":"Jody McDonald","@id":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/#\/schema\/person\/ad627358e3d76f0a49b8a918c9f851fb"},"headline":"AUD To GBP Forecast: Will The Pound Crash In 2026?","datePublished":"2024-06-27T22:44:37+00:00","dateModified":"2026-07-21T06:01:48+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/aud-to-gpb-forecast\/"},"wordCount":1672,"commentCount":3,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/aud-to-gpb-forecast\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/aud-gbp-forecast.jpg","articleSection":["Economic Outlook","Money"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/aud-to-gpb-forecast\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/aud-to-gpb-forecast\/","url":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/aud-to-gpb-forecast\/","name":"AUD To GBP Forecast: Will The Pound Gain Ground?","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/aud-to-gpb-forecast\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/aud-to-gpb-forecast\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/aud-gbp-forecast.jpg","datePublished":"2024-06-27T22:44:37+00:00","dateModified":"2026-07-21T06:01:48+00:00","description":"What is the AUD to GBP forecast for the rest of 2024? 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During my 20+ year career, I've reported for Australian business publications and bodies, including Forbes, The Chainsaw and NSW Business Chamber.","sameAs":["https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/contentquill\/"],"url":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/author\/jody\/"}]}},"modified_by":"Steven McConnell","uagb_featured_image_src":{"full":["https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/aud-gbp-forecast.jpg",1490,838,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/aud-gbp-forecast-150x150.jpg",150,150,true],"medium":["https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/aud-gbp-forecast-300x169.jpg",300,169,true],"medium_large":["https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/aud-gbp-forecast-768x432.jpg",768,432,true],"large":["https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/aud-gbp-forecast-1024x576.jpg",1024,576,true],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/aud-gbp-forecast.jpg",1490,838,false],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/aud-gbp-forecast.jpg",1490,838,false],"alm-thumbnail":["https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/aud-gbp-forecast-150x150.jpg",150,150,true]},"uagb_author_info":{"display_name":"Jody McDonald","author_link":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/author\/jody\/"},"uagb_comment_info":3,"uagb_excerpt":"Reading Time: 6 minutesOn the surface, the GBP looks bulletproof. Against its major peers, sterling hasn\u2019t exactly been limping. As of December 2025,","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/104820","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/14"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=104820"}],"version-history":[{"count":43,"href":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/104820\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":125899,"href":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/104820\/revisions\/125899"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/120622"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=104820"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=104820"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=104820"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}