{"id":117048,"date":"2025-04-28T08:19:10","date_gmt":"2025-04-28T08:19:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/?p=117048"},"modified":"2026-08-03T07:31:02","modified_gmt":"2026-08-03T07:31:02","slug":"what-happens-in-a-recession","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/what-happens-in-a-recession\/","title":{"rendered":"How A Recession Hurts Ordinary Australians"},"content":{"rendered":"<span class=\"span-reading-time rt-reading-time\" style=\"display: block;\"><span class=\"rt-label rt-prefix\">Reading Time: <\/span> <span class=\"rt-time\"> 9<\/span> <span class=\"rt-label rt-postfix\">minutes<\/span><\/span>\n<p>Economies expand and contract in a fluctuating pattern known as the business cycle. When we see growth in a country\u2019s goods and services outputs (its gross domestic product &#8211; or GDP), we view it as a good sign of flourishing economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But endless growth is unsustainable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A healthy economy is cyclical. In some months, the GDP growth rate will be lower. And sometimes, growth will stop altogether, reversing course into negative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A prolonged decline in GDP raises fears of recession \u2014 i.e., a widespread economic downturn that lasts many months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Because the impacts of a recession are broad, it&#8217;s important to understand what happens &#8211; and how a recession could affect you.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>(Related: <a href=\"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/how-to-buy-cba-commonwealth-bank-shares-in-australia\/\">How To Buy CBA Shares<\/a>).<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:40px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>What Is A Recession?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>An economy is often described in the media as having entered a \u2018technical recession\u2019 when negative GDP growth continues for a period of six months, or two quarters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-create-block-tip-block tip-wrapper\"><div class=\"row\"><div class=\"col-md-12\"><div class=\"card-wrapper\"><div class=\"card-title\"><div class=\"icon\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"20\" height=\"20\" viewBox=\"0 0 20 20\" fill=\"none\"><path fill-rule=\"evenodd\" clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M7.5 14.33a5 5 0 1 1 5 0v4.17h-5v-4.17Zm4.25-1.3-.75.44V17H9v-3.53l-.75-.44a3.5 3.5 0 1 1 3.5 0Z\" fill=\"#656E83\"><\/path><path d=\"M9.25 1v2h1.5V1h-1.5ZM5.53 4.47l-1.5-1.5-1.06 1.06 1.5 1.5 1.06-1.06ZM15.53 5.53l1.5-1.5-1.06-1.06-1.5 1.5 1.06 1.06ZM1 10.75h2v-1.5H1v1.5ZM17 10.75h2v-1.5h-2v1.5Z\" fill=\"#656E83\"><\/path><\/svg><\/div><h3 placeholder=\"Tip Title Goes Here\">Important!<\/h3><\/div><div class=\"card-content\"><p placeholder=\"Tip Content Goes Here\">But technically speaking, a recession is about more than a decline in GDP. It\u2019s a sustained period of economic weakness combined with falls in employment and production.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Slowdowns and recessions are usually caused by external or financial shocks, or the monetary or fiscal policies a country applies. For instance:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"arrow-wrapper\"><div class=\"arrow-list\"><ul><li><strong>The year-long<\/strong> recession that Keating famously claimed we \u201chad to have\u201d in the early 90s was influenced by a global downturn and pushing interest rates too high domestically.<\/li><li><strong>The slowdown<\/strong> that followed the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) was triggered by the US housing bubble being burst leading to a large volume of defaults on subprime mortgages.<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"791\" src=\"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/australian-recessions-1024x791.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-117063\" srcset=\"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/australian-recessions-1024x791.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/australian-recessions-300x232.jpg 300w, https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/australian-recessions-768x593.jpg 768w, https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/australian-recessions.jpg 1500w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Above: Australia has experienced a number of economic declines throughout its history.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-create-block-tip-block tip-wrapper\"><div class=\"row\"><div class=\"col-md-12\"><div class=\"card-wrapper\"><div class=\"card-title\"><div class=\"icon\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"20\" height=\"20\" viewBox=\"0 0 20 20\" fill=\"none\"><path fill-rule=\"evenodd\" clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M7.5 14.33a5 5 0 1 1 5 0v4.17h-5v-4.17Zm4.25-1.3-.75.44V17H9v-3.53l-.75-.44a3.5 3.5 0 1 1 3.5 0Z\" fill=\"#656E83\"><\/path><path d=\"M9.25 1v2h1.5V1h-1.5ZM5.53 4.47l-1.5-1.5-1.06 1.06 1.5 1.5 1.06-1.06ZM15.53 5.53l1.5-1.5-1.06-1.06-1.5 1.5 1.06 1.06ZM1 10.75h2v-1.5H1v1.5ZM17 10.75h2v-1.5h-2v1.5Z\" fill=\"#656E83\"><\/path><\/svg><\/div><h3 placeholder=\"Tip Title Goes Here\">Did You Know?<\/h3><\/div><div class=\"card-content\"><p placeholder=\"Tip Content Goes Here\">When recessions are severe and last longer, they can be referred to as a depression. The Great Depression of the 1930s saw Australia\u2019s GDP fall 17.1% over a three-year period, with unemployment rising from 4.2% to almost 20%.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:40px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>If There\u2019s No Official Definition, When Do We Worry?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Two quarters of negative growth is <em>not<\/em> the definition used by all governments and economists to evaluate economic health. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A \u2018technical recession\u2019 can be triggered without rising jobless rates or serious risk of a persistent slowdown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-create-block-tip-block tip-wrapper\"><div class=\"row\"><div class=\"col-md-12\"><div class=\"card-wrapper\"><div class=\"card-title\"><div class=\"icon\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"20\" height=\"20\" viewBox=\"0 0 20 20\" fill=\"none\"><path fill-rule=\"evenodd\" clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M7.5 14.33a5 5 0 1 1 5 0v4.17h-5v-4.17Zm4.25-1.3-.75.44V17H9v-3.53l-.75-.44a3.5 3.5 0 1 1 3.5 0Z\" fill=\"#656E83\"><\/path><path d=\"M9.25 1v2h1.5V1h-1.5ZM5.53 4.47l-1.5-1.5-1.06 1.06 1.5 1.5 1.06-1.06ZM15.53 5.53l1.5-1.5-1.06-1.06-1.5 1.5 1.06 1.06ZM1 10.75h2v-1.5H1v1.5ZM17 10.75h2v-1.5h-2v1.5Z\" fill=\"#656E83\"><\/path><\/svg><\/div><h3 placeholder=\"Tip Title Goes Here\">Did You Know?<\/h3><\/div><div class=\"card-content\"><p placeholder=\"Tip Content Goes Here\">Economies can also be limping along with very weak growth, and lower living standards, yet avoid a technical recession.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"791\" src=\"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/is-australia-on-the-brink-of-recession-1024x791.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-126282\" srcset=\"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/is-australia-on-the-brink-of-recession-1024x791.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/is-australia-on-the-brink-of-recession-300x232.jpg 300w, https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/is-australia-on-the-brink-of-recession-768x593.jpg 768w, https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/is-australia-on-the-brink-of-recession.jpg 1500w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Above: Australia&#8217;s GDP per capita has been hovering near zero since 2024.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For instance, Australia was widely considered to be in a \u2018<a href=\"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/will-australia-go-into-recession\/\">per capita recession<\/a>\u2019 since the start of 2026:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"arrow-wrapper\"><div class=\"arrow-list\"><ul><li><strong>Australia\u2019s economy<\/strong> grew slowly: it saw GDP growth of just 0.3% since late 2025.<\/li><li><strong>GDP per capita<\/strong> was in the negative for seven consecutive quarters between 2023-24, climbed back into the positive in 2025, only to fall back into negative in 2026.<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Essentially, growth is returning &#8211; slowly &#8211; after the slowest few years on record since &#8217;91.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"791\" src=\"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/australian-gdp-data-1024x791.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-126286\" srcset=\"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/australian-gdp-data-1024x791.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/australian-gdp-data-300x232.jpg 300w, https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/australian-gdp-data-768x593.jpg 768w, https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/australian-gdp-data.jpg 1500w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Above: GDP is not exactly staging a strong rebound. In typical Australian style, it&#8217;s recovering at a modest pace.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:40px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>What Happens To The Economy During A Recession?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s understandable to worry about recessions because sluggish growth and more people out of work can lead to:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"arrow-wrapper\"><div class=\"arrow-list\"><ul><li><strong>People<\/strong> tightening their belts as concerns rise about job security.<\/li><li><strong>Reduced<\/strong> production and business activity as consumer demand drops.<\/li><li><strong>Further<\/strong> job losses as businesses can\u2019t afford to pay as many staff.<\/li><li><strong>Businesses<\/strong> being forced to close and an increase in bankruptcies.<\/li><li><strong>Stock markets<\/strong> and asset prices falling as investors react to negative data.<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Mass layoffs, bankruptcies and business failures are especially damaging \u2014 people\u2019s livelihoods are deeply affected and it hurts the economy\u2019s capacity to regain momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"791\" src=\"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/australian-recession-history-1024x791.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-117081\" srcset=\"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/australian-recession-history-1024x791.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/australian-recession-history-300x232.jpg 300w, https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/australian-recession-history-768x593.jpg 768w, https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/australian-recession-history.jpg 1400w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>AMP\u2019s chief economist Shane Oliver points out that Australia has avoided recessions since the 1990s by adopting smart measures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These include:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"arrow-wrapper\"><div class=\"arrow-list\"><ul><li><strong>Economic<\/strong> reforms. (e.g., floating the Australian dollar).<\/li><li><strong>Strong<\/strong> growth in China that bolstered export demand.<\/li><li><strong>Counter<\/strong>-cyclical policies like stimulus payments and easing policy rates.<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Australian economist Michael Blythe <a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/feed\/update\/urn:li:activity:7094871897384906752\/\">said<\/a> that because public spending can moderate the impact of a downturn, his preferred measure of the state of the business cycle is private spending.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He said a typical recession involves peak-to-trough falls in private spending of 1-4%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"791\" src=\"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/private-spending-in-australia-1024x791.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-117071\" srcset=\"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/private-spending-in-australia-1024x791.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/private-spending-in-australia-300x232.jpg 300w, https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/private-spending-in-australia-768x593.jpg 768w, https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/private-spending-in-australia.jpg 1500w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>\u201cOutright falls in private spending clearly mark the five major recessions of the early 1960s, the mid 1970s, early 1980s, the early 1990s and 2020.\u201d \u2014 Michael Blythe, economist<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:40px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>What Happened During The GFC?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The so-called \u2018Great Recession\u2019 that followed the GFC <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/spotlight\/2012\/recession\/pdf\/recession_bls_spotlight.pdf\">saw<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"arrow-wrapper\"><div class=\"arrow-list\"><ul><li><strong>The US unemployment rate<\/strong> go from 5.0% in December 2007 to 9.5% in June 2009.<\/li><li><strong>US unemployment peak<\/strong> at 10% in the months after the recession had ended.\u00a0<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Australia fared much better. Our GDP growth didn\u2019t decline for two quarters, but the unemployment rate rose from around 4% to 5.75% between early 2008 to mid 2009.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Analysis from the RBA <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rba.gov.au\/publications\/bulletin\/2010\/mar\/1.html\">shows<\/a> there was a longer-than-usual lag between when the GFC downturn started and when unemployment started rising, reflecting tightness in the labour market. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Many employers looked to hold on to talent as they knew they\u2019d be hard to replace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>(Related: <a href=\"http:\/\/arielle.com.au\/best-crypto-exchange-australia\/\">7 Best Crypto Exchanges In Australia<\/a>).<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:40px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>What Happened During The COVID Pandemic?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The COVID pandemic that swept the globe starting in late 2019 resulted in a series of lockdowns that forced a pause in business activity in many countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"indent-wrapper\"><div class=\"indented-text\"><span><em>Australia\u2019s economy experienced its first recession in 29 years, based on a decline in GDP growth in the first and second quarters of 2020.<\/em><\/span><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Here\u2019s what happened that year:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"arrow-wrapper\"><div class=\"arrow-list\"><ul><li><strong>Up<\/strong> to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/2020-05-05\/almost-one-million-australians-lose-jobs-due-to-coronavirus\/12215494\">one million Australians<\/a> lost their jobs in early 2020.<\/li><li><strong>First <\/strong>quarter GDP data showed a fall of 0.3%.<\/li><li><strong>Underemployment<\/strong> hit a historic high of 13.8% in April 2020.<\/li><li><strong>Hospitality<\/strong> jobs were the hardest hit, declining 35% in April 2020.<\/li><li><strong>Over<\/strong> 70% of businesses were reporting reduced revenues by May 2020.<\/li><li><strong>Australia\u2019s<\/strong> GDP shrank by a massive 7% in Q2, 2020 \u2014 a new record.<\/li><li><strong>Unemployment<\/strong> rose to 7.5% in July 2020, the highest in over 20 years.<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>By October 2020, there were some signs of recovery and Q3 GDP results for 2020 revealed the Australian economy had grown by 3.3%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, Germany, France, Canada and Italy all saw negative growth in the first two quarters of 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"arrow-wrapper\"><div class=\"arrow-list\"><ul><li><strong>The US economy<\/strong> declined by a whopping 31.4% in Q2, 2020 after a decline of 5% in Q1.<\/li><li><strong>The UK<\/strong> experienced a 20.4% contraction in economic activity in Q2 \u2014 the largest on record.<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The need to restart economies after the initial waves of the pandemic resulted in low interest rates and significant government stimulus being delivered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Which led to more consumer spending, and saw recessions lift.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"791\" src=\"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/what-drives-real-gdp-1024x791.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-117073\" srcset=\"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/what-drives-real-gdp-1024x791.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/what-drives-real-gdp-300x232.jpg 300w, https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/what-drives-real-gdp-768x593.jpg 768w, https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/what-drives-real-gdp.jpg 1500w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Above: The US economy expanded by 33.1% in the third quarter of 2020, the largest quarterly growth rate recorded in the US.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>COVID was a uniquely disruptive event, rather than a part of the usual business cycle \u2014 and its effects are still being felt through persistent inflationary pressure. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"indent-wrapper\"><div class=\"indented-text\"><span>Interest rate hiking cycles initiated by central banks once inflation took hold only began to moderate in 2024.\u00a0<\/span><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The US economy saw two quarters of negative GDP growth when the pandemic emerged, but the US Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) found that America\u2019s economy experienced a recession of just two months in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Capital Group U.S. economist Darrell Spence said the US\u2019 2020 downturn was described as a recession for lack of a better word.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"791\" src=\"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/are-recessions-necessary-1024x791.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-117075\" srcset=\"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/are-recessions-necessary-1024x791.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/are-recessions-necessary-300x232.jpg 300w, https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/are-recessions-necessary-768x593.jpg 768w, https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/are-recessions-necessary.jpg 1400w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:40px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Are There Upsides To A Recession?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>There may be silver linings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Contractions in the business cycle can be deflationary \u2014 businesses might lower prices or offer more special deals to try to bolster demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is also more likely to cut the official cash rate to stimulate economic activity. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As banks lower their rates, it becomes cheaper to borrow, which encourages investment and spending.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"arrow-wrapper\"><div class=\"arrow-list\"><ul><li><strong>You<\/strong> might be lucky enough to lock in a low fixed rate loan if you find yourself in a position to buy during a recession.<\/li><li><strong>Financial <\/strong>markets in decline can provide an opportunity to \u2018buy the dip\u2019 and add quality stocks to your portfolio at a discounted price.<\/li><li><strong>Businesses<\/strong> that survive sustained downturns can also emerge stronger if market competition is thinned.<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>While you\u2019d expect asset prices to fall in a recession, history tells us that property prices don\u2019t necessarily crash. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>House prices actually rose in many parts of Australia during the worst months of the early 90s recession, but they did fall during the GFC.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:40px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>How Good Are We At Predicting Recessions?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s incredibly difficult to predict how the economy will behave<strong>.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Recession concerns increased in both the US and Australia in 2023-24, but both economies avoided a technical recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"arrow-wrapper\"><div class=\"arrow-list\"><ul><li><strong>85%<\/strong> of economists <a href=\"https:\/\/www.capitalgroup.com\/advisor\/insights\/articles\/us-avoided-recession-2023-what-comes-next.html\">surveyed<\/a> by US investment firm Capital Group in late 2022 expected a recession before the end of 2023.<\/li><li><strong>AMP<\/strong> put the risk of recession in Australia at a very high 50% in mid-2023 as a result of ongoing cash rate increases by the RBA.<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>In December 2023 \u2014 when fears of a US recession were still very much alive \u2014 head of global aggregate bonds at J.P Morgan Asset Management, Myles Bradshaw <a href=\"https:\/\/www.livewiremarkets.com\/wires\/the-recession-dilemma-why-j-p-morgan-asset-management-isn-t-playing-the-if-and-when-game?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=Trending%20On%20Livewire%20%20Friday%208%20December%202023&amp;utm_content=Trending%20On%20Livewire%20%20Friday%208%20December%202023+CID_98fd7dc81867262914733c67a3bc612b&amp;utm_source=campaign%20monitor&amp;utm_term=ACCESS%20THE%20INSIGHTS\">said<\/a> it was hard to foresee the timing of an economic cycle\u2019s contraction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"791\" src=\"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/are-recessions-predictable-1024x791.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-117076\" srcset=\"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/are-recessions-predictable-1024x791.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/are-recessions-predictable-300x232.jpg 300w, https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/are-recessions-predictable-768x593.jpg 768w, https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/are-recessions-predictable.jpg 1400w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Naturally, this doesn\u2019t stop economists and others from speculating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Most predictions are based on mathematical modelling and patterns from historical data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They\u2019ll look at things like: data about the labour market, retail sales, consumer spending and household income; consumer and business sentiment surveys; and the performance of housing and financial markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In addition, indicators commonly used to help predict recessions include:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"arrow-wrapper\"><div class=\"arrow-list\"><ul><li><strong>Inverted bond yields<\/strong>, where the return on short-term bonds is higher that long-term bonds with the same credit risk, signalling investors think long-term interest rates will decline.<\/li><li><strong>Purchasing Managers Indexes<\/strong> (PMIs) as a gauge of industrial activity. For instance, the US\u2019 ISM Manufacturing PMI has consistently dropped below 50 in tandem with recessions.<\/li><li><strong>The Sahm rule,<\/strong> which has previously shown that a recession has started when the 3-month moving average of the U.S. unemployment rate is at least 0.5% higher than the 12-month low.<\/li><li><strong>Beige Book report<\/strong> from the US Federal Reserve, which is based on anecdotal reports of changing economic sentiment from its 12 regional banks.<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Some less conventional ways that people take stock of the economy include:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"arrow-wrapper\"><div class=\"arrow-list\"><ul><li><strong>Frozen pizza sales.<\/strong> When people start stocking up on the fanciest frozen pizzas en masse, it\u2019s seen as a sign that going out for dinner or ordering take-away is off the cards.<\/li><li><strong>Lipstick sales.<\/strong> Aka, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.chase.com\/personal\/investments\/learning-and-insights\/article\/what-is-the-lipstick-index\">lipstick index<\/a>, which posits that consumers switch from \u2018big ticket\u2019 luxuries in hard times, and instead make small splurges on lipstick or nail polish.\u00a0<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Indicators aren\u2019t perfect, simply a guide to how the business cycle is unfolding and whether a recession is more or less likely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-create-block-tip-block tip-wrapper\"><div class=\"row\"><div class=\"col-md-12\"><div class=\"card-wrapper\"><div class=\"card-title\"><div class=\"icon\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"20\" height=\"20\" viewBox=\"0 0 20 20\" fill=\"none\"><path fill-rule=\"evenodd\" clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M7.5 14.33a5 5 0 1 1 5 0v4.17h-5v-4.17Zm4.25-1.3-.75.44V17H9v-3.53l-.75-.44a3.5 3.5 0 1 1 3.5 0Z\" fill=\"#656E83\"><\/path><path d=\"M9.25 1v2h1.5V1h-1.5ZM5.53 4.47l-1.5-1.5-1.06 1.06 1.5 1.5 1.06-1.06ZM15.53 5.53l1.5-1.5-1.06-1.06-1.5 1.5 1.06 1.06ZM1 10.75h2v-1.5H1v1.5ZM17 10.75h2v-1.5h-2v1.5Z\" fill=\"#656E83\"><\/path><\/svg><\/div><h3 placeholder=\"Tip Title Goes Here\">Important!<\/h3><\/div><div class=\"card-content\"><p placeholder=\"Tip Content Goes Here\">The Sahm rule was triggered in 2024 but didn\u2019t hold true, despite recessionary momentum. The economist for whom the rule was named, Claudia Sahm, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2024\/08\/05\/recession-what-is-the-sahm-rule-and-why-is-everyone-talking-about-it.html\">said<\/a>, \u201cI\u2019ll be the first to say it as someone who has a rule attached to her name \u2014 don\u2019t just rely on one tool.\u201d<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:40px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>How Long Do Recessions Last And What Happens Afterwards?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Recessions vary in length and impact depending on their breadth and depth. If the recession is mild and short-lived, the economy may rebound quickly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking at 122 recessions in 21 advanced economies in the period between 1960-2007, the International Monetary Fund <a href=\"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/Publications\/fandd\/issues\/Series\/Back-to-Basics\/Recession\">found<\/a> that they typically last about one year and result in a 2% decline in GDP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While a recession ends when growth picks up again, that doesn\u2019t mean an economy\u2019s troubles disappear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The World Economic Forum <a href=\"https:\/\/www.weforum.org\/stories\/2024\/02\/what-is-a-recession-economy-definition-explainer\/\">gives<\/a> the example of the global Great Recession of 2008, where quantitative easing was initiated to pump trillions into world economies: <\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"indent-wrapper\"><div class=\"indented-text\"><span>\u201cFollowing this unprecedented level of stimulus, markets began to recover, although lingering scars like higher unemployment and lower average income levels remained many years later.\u201d<\/span><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:40px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Can You Recession-Proof Yourself?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Avoiding financial risk and panicked decisions is wise during a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>You may seek to rebalance your portfolio to lower-risk assets like government bonds and gold, but speak with a financial adviser before you do so.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Markets are likely to rebound eventually, so inaction may be the right approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"indent-wrapper\"><div class=\"indented-text\"><span>Carefully make decisions about launching new ventures, making major investments or accumulating large debts. <\/span><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>What poses a risk to <em>you<\/em> will depend on your current financial situation and how much risk you can handle without losing sleep.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Your vulnerability during a recession is largely tied to your income-generating potential. Consider how you\u2019ll fare if you lose your job or your business revenue declines?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Another way to think about recession-proofing yourself is to invest in skills and innovation capacity \u2014 so that you\u2019re positioned to pivot or capitalise on the most in-demand areas of the economy or job market, regardless of how it\u2019s travelling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:34px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Jody<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:44px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p><span class=\"span-reading-time rt-reading-time\" style=\"display: block;\"><span class=\"rt-label rt-prefix\">Reading Time: <\/span> <span class=\"rt-time\"> 9<\/span> <span class=\"rt-label rt-postfix\">minutes<\/span><\/span>Economies expand and contract in a fluctuating pattern known as the business cycle. When we see growth in a country\u2019s<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":117062,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[324,267],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-117048","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economic-outlook","category-money"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>How A Recession Hurts Ordinary Australians<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"What is a recession, what triggers it, and what happens to businesses and consumers when one is under way?\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" 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During my 20+ year career, I've reported for Australian business publications and bodies, including Forbes, The Chainsaw and NSW Business Chamber.","sameAs":["https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/contentquill\/"],"url":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/author\/jody\/"}]}},"modified_by":"Steven McConnell","uagb_featured_image_src":{"full":["https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/what-happens-in-a-recession.jpg",1490,839,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/what-happens-in-a-recession-150x150.jpg",150,150,true],"medium":["https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/what-happens-in-a-recession-300x169.jpg",300,169,true],"medium_large":["https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/what-happens-in-a-recession-768x432.jpg",768,432,true],"large":["https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/what-happens-in-a-recession-1024x577.jpg",1024,577,true],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/what-happens-in-a-recession.jpg",1490,839,false],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/what-happens-in-a-recession.jpg",1490,839,false],"alm-thumbnail":["https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/what-happens-in-a-recession-150x150.jpg",150,150,true]},"uagb_author_info":{"display_name":"Jody McDonald","author_link":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/author\/jody\/"},"uagb_comment_info":0,"uagb_excerpt":"Reading Time: 9 minutesEconomies expand and contract in a fluctuating pattern known as the business cycle. When we see growth in a country\u2019s","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/117048","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/14"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=117048"}],"version-history":[{"count":28,"href":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/117048\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":126290,"href":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/117048\/revisions\/126290"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/117062"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=117048"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=117048"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arielle.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=117048"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}